Inside the battle for Edinburgh Central

Can the Greens make history, dump an SNP Cabinet Minister and scupper one of Labour’s best city hopes?

It’s a Sunday morning in March, and the weather is frankly biblical. I am following Lorna Slater, Scottish Greens candidate for Edinburgh Central, around a row of Tollcross tenements, and the weather is almost as varied as the conversations. We emerge from one conversation about cycle infrastructure and potholes into hail and gale-force winds, duck into the next stairwell to talk about international affairs, and then emerge into warm sunshine.

One door opens to Beth, who immediately smiles and says, “Oh yes, we’ll be voting Green for sure.” Beth calls back to Ry, who also enthusiastically joins the doorway discussion. Slater is keen to know what these voters would like to see her working on, and the three launch into a conversation about reducing car use in city centres, concerns about energy-hungry data centres in Edinburgh, and trans rights. Everything Slater has to say about the work the Greens have done in the last Parliament, and their policies going forward, is met with nods and hums of agreement. Slater makes sure to get in at the end that Ry and Beth should vote Green on both ballots this time round, not just on the regional list, but it seems that’s been their plan all along.

For nearly two hours of door-knocking in this neighbourhood, receptions are overwhelmingly positive. At worst, individuals are simply clueless - when asked “have you thought of voting Green before?” their eyes immediately give away that they’ve not thought about voting at all until now. Many, often overseas nationals settled in Edinburgh, do not even know they’re eligible to vote.

Thanks to the city centre’s rapid population turnover, we also meet many whose voting preferences are marked ‘unknown’ on the Greens database, who mostly say they are undecided. They seem ready to be convinced by Lorna and the Greens, although it’s impossible to tell how much may be simply politeness. One says their children’s support for the Green party policies made them consider voting for the party, another wants to see more availability of childcare, another is concerned for cycle infrastructure and free university tuition. Those who have voted in several Holyrood elections are surprised to know the Greens actually have a chance of winning a constituency seat - a fair few say they usually vote SNP for the constituency and Greens for the list.

Streets like this are the reason that, for the first time ever, a Holyrood constituency is looking winnable for the Greens. For Slater, it would be wonderful if every street in the constituency were like this. In reality, this is one of the Greenest pockets of the constituency which stretches from Dundas Street to Sciennes and from Gorgie to Dumbiedykes. According to most polls, the constituency is a close race between SNP, Labour and the Greens. We took a deep dive into the three main competitors in what is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing corners of the Scottish Parliamentary election - and potentially an historic one.

All change at Edinburgh Central

Edinburgh Central is an incredibly changeable constituency; it has changed hands in every election since 2011, and been held by Labour, SNP and the Tories since devolution. It has also changed shape significantly ahead of the 2026 election, losing much of Stockbridge, Murrayfield and Comely Bank and gaining most of Merchiston, Marchmont and Bruntsfield.

Edinburgh constituency boundaries, 2021 and 2026. Data: Ordnance Survey. Basemap: Open Street Maps (OSM). Map: Sarah McArthur

All this amid sea changes in British and Scottish politics. The rise of Reform, historic victories for Greens, Labour slumping in polls, the Conservatives imploding, and scandals dogging the SNP… there should be plenty on the minds of voters this Spring.

The polls are certainly predicting some upsets; with a new Ipsos poll predicting the Greens will become the second largest party in Holyrood, jumping from 7 to 17 seats. However, 42% of respondents in this poll said they might change their mind before polling day. Another recent poll puts the Greens at only 14 seats nationally, behind Labour and tied with Reform, and with no increase from their two regional seats in the Lothians. This poll has the SNP winning Edinburgh Central with 28% of the vote, followed by the Greens and Labour on 23% and 21% respectively.

The stats which give Lorna Slater the most reason to be excited are from Ballot Box Scotland, which combines polls with previous election results to make projections on constituency levels. For weeks now, Ballot Box has placed Slater top of the class in Edinburgh Central; as of April 1 (before the two polls cited above), BBS estimates that the Greens will win it with 30.6% of the vote, followed by Labour on 23.1% and the incumbent SNP in close third with 22.4%. Indeed, both Labour and Green party internal calculations rank Edinburgh Central as one of their most winnable seats in the country.